Jay Cutler to Have a Better Year Than 2008?
Published by Esteban Olivo on May 18, 2009
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears
Listen to any pundit who has shared their two cents on the Jay Cutler trade and they’ll tell you Cutler in Denver will not be the same as Cutler in Chicago. I am inclined to agree.
If the numbers indeed do not lie, the Bears version of Cutler will be better.
In 2008, with a down year on special teams and defense, the Bears ranked first in average field position (according to FootballOutsiders.com), with a 33.48 yard-line average.
However, the Bears ranked a meager 27th in drive success rate with a .620 percentage.
Comparatively, the Cutler-led Denver Broncos ranked dead last in average field position, with a 25.85 average.
But, to the Bears’ great pleasure, Cutler headed the offense with a .741 drive success percentage, fourth best in the league.
With almost a 10 yard difference, suffice to say Cutler will see greener pastures in Chicago.
The differences do not end there. The Bears had nearly 40 more drives than the Denver Broncos(164 to 198) yet only averaged .30 points more per game than the Broncos (23.4 to 23.1)
The Broncos also ranked first in yards per drive with 38.38, while the Bears were 27th with 23.90.
With less drives and more yards to go, Cutler’s offense converted more drives into points.
The drives statistic directly speaks to what kind of a difference Chicago’s defense will have on Cutler, and vice versa. The Bears ranked fifth in third down conversion percentage, third in interceptions with 22, and second in Takeaways with 32.
Suffice to say Cutler will reap what the Bears defense sows.
The Broncos also ranked first in punts per drive, with a low .280, meaning roughly only one out of every four drives resulted in a punt.
Furthermore, Cutler passed for 222 first downs, 10 shy of the lead held by New Orleans’ Drew Brees, who lead 175 drives, 11 more than Cutler.
By contrast, Kyle Orton was 20th with 141 first downs on 198 drives.
But perhaps the most criticized numbers have been Cutler’s 18 interceptions and winning percentage.
Upon further inspection however, one sees that Jay Cutler is 17-1 when the defense holds under 22 points.
To put that into perspective, the Bears held nine teams under 22 points. Three of those games were losses.
The Bears will be putting Cutler in better positions, with a more balanced team, and ask him to do less. This, in turn, will increase his opportunities and cut back on his interceptions because he will not have to force throws as much to keep his team in it.
If these stats are any indication of the offensive future of the Bears, get ready Chicago. You could be shuffling sooner than you think.
Stats courtesy of FootballOutsiders.com and NFL.com
