Bears Blitz

Published by Bear Heiser on September 19, 2014
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

It’s been an interesting start to the 2014 NFL season for the Chicago Bears. Those who analyzed the schedule before the season saw the Bears with a 1-1 record after two games. It just happened in the opposite way we all thought.

The now 2-0 Buffalo Bills were supposed to be an easy opponent; and the San Francisco 49ers were pegged to dominate in the same fashion they’ve been winning since the Bears last won a Super Bowl.

It has been a strange start to the season, to say the least.

Now the Bears find themselves with a Monday Night Football matchup on the road against the New York Jets.

Breaking down the matchups, the Bears’ strengths fall in line with the Jets’ weaknesses and vice versa.

Bears offense vs. Jets defense

Jay Cutler threw four touchdown passes last week in the Bears’ comeback win over the 49ers. They likely will need another tremendous effort from him if the Bears are to win this game.

The bread and butter of the Jets’ defense is stopping the run. With reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, Sheldon Richardson, Damon Harrison and Muhammad Wilkerson up front, Matt Forte and his linemen will have their hands full.

The Jets are the top-rated rushing defense in the NFL this season, giving up an average of 52.5 points per game with zero touchdowns allowed.

Packers rusher Eddie Lacy ran with little success against the Jets last week, gaining 43 yards on 13 carries. While that doesn’t at all bode well for Forte and the Bears, Lacy, based on the carry breakdown, attempted to run right up the gut more often that not.

The middle is where the Jets are the best. The outside is where Forte is the best.

Dating back to last season, Forte has averaged 5.34 yards per carry (168-897-5) when rushing behind or outside the tackles, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription needed).

The Bears’ rushing attack just needs to stay away from the middle of the Jets’ defensive line. If head coach Marc Trestman can utilize Forte by calling sweeps, tosses and counters, the Jets’ big defensive line will be challenged to defend an attack they haven’t yet seen this season.

We’ve talked this week about the Bears finding balance in the offense, and this would be the game to show some progress in that area.

“He’s a great running back with great eyes,” Jets linebacker Quinton Coples said, per NYJets.com. “At the end of the day, our No. 1 goal is to stop the run and make the team one-dimensional and move on from there.”

Now the Jets’ secondary are a huge liability, but they’ll have a much easier time Monday night if receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are still battling injuries.

San Francisco’s secondary weren’t at all threatened by Cutler’s ability to throw the deep ball. They dared Cutler and Co. to beat them deep, but neither receiver was able to create enough separation to make a play.

Even though the Bears found success last season throwing downfield, Cutler has been absurdly good when targeting receivers within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. In two games, Cutler has completed 35-of-40 passes for 253 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, according to PFF (subscription needed). That’s a QB rating of 111.5.

Given the strength of the Jets’ defensive line, Cutler should continue trying to find space in the middle third of the field for his receivers. Jets coach Rex Ryan operates a scheme that features a lot of movement, stunts, blitzes and maybe even the kitchen sink. This will allow the Bears quarterback to get rid of the ball quickly, without having to worry about in-your-face pressure.

“They’re coming from everywhere,” Trestman said, per SunTimes.com. “Overloaded blitzes, different fronts, multiple coverages. [Ryan] really does an excellent job of creating a lot of uncertainty—not only for the quarterback, but just in terms of determining who your line’s going to block, who your back’s going to block.”

It will also keep Marshall and Jeffery from having to overextend themselves down the field, instead keeping them on shorter pass routes where they can use their physicality to create space.

Now if Marshall and Jeffery are healthy, the Bears might be able to take advantage of a weak Jets secondary. Dee Milliner, the Jets’ first-round pick in 2013, is recovering from a high-ankle sprain and hasn’t been anywhere near 100 percent. Milliner left last week’s game in Green Bay after blowing coverage on Jordy Nelson that allowed him to connect with Aaron Rodgers for a go-ahead 80-yard touchdown. The injury has left Ryan with a bunch of backups to pick up the slack.

“These guys are matchup nightmares,” Ryan said, via SunTimes.com. “Brandon Marshall … is right up there with the best receivers in the game. He uses his big body. He can go deep on you. Run routes. Inside, outside. He’s an outstanding player. And Alshon Jeffery is a guy that just burst on the scene last year, but he’s a big guy that has great ball skills and he can run. He’s just a massive target.”

A wild card for the Bears in this game is receiver Santonio Holmes, the former Jets castoff. Holmes was regarded as a cancer in the Jets locker room, where he was the top offensive option. But now Holmes is the Bears’ third or fourth receiver, and he’s on his last legs in the league. If Holmes can’t re-energize his career this season with the Bears, he’s going to have a hard time finding work next offseason.

Holmes knows this. So does Trestman. If there ever were to be a springboard game for Holmes, this would be the one.

Bears defense vs. Jets offense

The Jets enter Monday’s game with the best rushing attack in football, averaging 179 yards a game behind Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory.

Ivory is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. He’s a hard-nosed rusher who will be a great test for the Bears. Johnson hasn’t fared too well with his new team. On almost the same number of carries as Ivory, Johnson is averaging only 3.6 yards a tilt. He will be a threat to the outside, whereas Ivory will be more likely to attack on a line.

Chicago’s rush defense allowed a grand total of 193 yards Week 1 against the Bills. The unit played with zero gap discipline and often overplayed the edges against a Bills team that used a lot of misdirection before and after the ball was snapped.

The Bears clearly worked to improve in those areas, as the 49ers only rushed for 127 yards in Week 2. It almost looked like a different unit was out there.

Jared Allen forced a fumble; the struggling Shea McClellin was making more good plays than bad; Lance Briggs looked to have found some of his Pro Bowl linebacking ability; rookie defensive tackles Will Sutton and Ego Ferguson both saw action and played well against a tough San Francisco offensive line.

The Bears have a lot of positives to build upon against the Jets.

If the Jets can’t find success running the ball, they’ll have a tough time finding success anywhere on the field, as Geno Smith is an unlikely candidate to win you a game with his arm.

Now the Bears’ rushing defense ranks 27th in the league, allowing 160 yards per game. Last season, the Bears had the worst rushing defense in the league, also allowing 160 yards per game.

Smith still is a very raw kid, but he’s taken a large step forward this season. The second-year quarterback has completed 65 percent of his passes through the first two games, which is up from 55.8 percent in 2013, according to ESPN Stats and Research. 

The Jets went out in the offseason and brought in a playmaker for Smith to play with. Eric Decker was that guy.

Luckily for the Bears, though, Decker is sidelined with a hamstring injury and is unlikely to play Monday. That leaves Smith with a group of receivers that consists of Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson and Greg Salas. Not exactly a bunch that will strike fear in the opponent.

The Jets’ offense has been known to use a lot of three-receiver groupings, forcing the opposition to use the nickel more often than not. This could pose a problem for the Bears now that there are personal questions within the secondary.

Rookie Kyle Fuller will be starting at a new position Monday; the position vacated by Charles Tillman, who was placed on injured reserve earlier in the week.

Tim Jennings will get the nod on the left side, with either Sherrick McManis, who is battling a quad injury, Isaiah Frey, Demontre Hurst or Brock Vereen playing the nickel corner. McManis and Frey are the best options given the short notice. Injured free safety Chris Conte could be back in the lineup, too, as he was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice.

Regardless of who plays nickel, the recently opportunistic Bears defense will be ready and waiting for Smith to make a poor throw. And the best way to make sure that happens is by confusing Smith at the line of scrimmage, forcing him to adjust post-snap, while he stands in the pocket in search of a target.

Mel Tucker’s defense finished last week’s game with a confidence that hasn’t been seen since Brian Urlacher played middle linebacker and Lovie Smith was the head coach. Winning this game isn’t going to make or break the season for Chicago, a poor outing will negate any and all confidence and goodwill that was gained by coming back to beat the 49ers.

Establishing the run early in the game while slowly unfurling the passing game as the Jets’ defensive line tires should be part of the Bears’ game plan on offense. And the defense should focus on stacking the box and forcing Smith to beat them with his arm.

The Bears are the pick here, winning by the score of 38-17.

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