Bears Blitz

Published by Flockaball on January 22, 2011
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

by Charlie Peters

And then there were four. 

A highly entertaining and riveting 2011 NFL playoffs has come down an unlikely foursome, with six seeds Green Bay and New York traveling to visit two seeds Chicago and Pittsburgh, respectively.

Most pegged the dome-dominant Falcons or Michael Vick-led Eagles (or even the defending champion New Orleans Saints) to be involved in the NFC title game, while America had perhaps already slotted New England to represent the AFC in Dallas come February.

The prognosticators and pundits have been taught a valuable lesson: no one knows a damned thing about how the playoffs will shake out.

That being said, let’s examine Sunday’s conference title bouts and attempt to forecast who will play in Jerry Jones’ castle for Super Bowl XLV.

Green Bay Packers (12-6) at Chicago Bears (12-5)

(Sunday @ 3:00 p.m. EST—FOX)

Why Green Bay can win:

• Track record. The Packers, needing a win to get in the playoffs, beat the Bears (playing first-stringers) 10-3 Week 17.
• Aaron Rodgers. No quarterback is hotter than Rodgers right now (six TD’s, zero INT’s this postseason).
• Underrated wide receivers. Greg Jennings is one of the top seven pass-catchers in the league, James Jones (two postseason TD’s) is dangerous and veteran Donald Driver knows where to be for Rodgers (11 catches in two playoff games).
• Linebackers. It starts and ends with Defensive Player of the Year candidate Clay Matthews, but don’t forget about Desmond Bishop (six tackles, one forced fumble against Atlanta).
• Charles Woodson. One of the best defensive backs of this generation, the veteran is hungry to add a Super Bowl ring to his Heisman Trophy and National Championship from his Michigan days.
• Tramon Williams. Has any defensive back ever had a two-game postseason stretch (three INT’s, two of which were in own end zone) like this guy?

Why Chicago can win:

• Running game. Chicago has an edge at running back (Matt Forte and Chester Taylor vs. James Starks and John Kuhn), which could control the tempo and allow the Bears to play keep away from Rodgers and co.
• Line of scrimmage battle. The Bears’ defensive line, led by studs Julius Peppers and Tommie Harris, should harass Rodgers and disrupt the Packers’ ground game. Similarly, Chicago’s offensive line should nullify the Green Bay line.
• Special teams.  Robbie Gould is the most accurate kicker in the NFL from inside 50 yards. If Jay Cutler gets him close, Gould will give Chicago three.
• Devin Hester.  Even if Green Bay doesn’t allow him to take one to the house, Hester will break off at least one monster return to set Chicago up nicely.
• Discipline. The Packers went back to their old ways last week, accumulating 86 yards in penalties. In a Week 3 Chicago win, Green Bay racked up 152 yards on 18 penalties.
• Coaching. Lovie Smith has been to the Super Bowl before (with Rex Grossman at quarterback, no less). Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy plays the part of gambler—and the part of bad clock manager—too often to be trusted in a big game.
• Peppers. The opportunity to knock an elite quarterback down three or four times in a playoff game is why Chicago paid the former Panther all those dollars. Now is his chance to earn the contract.

Who will win?

It seems as though everyone (including Vegas) seems to love the Packers here based on their hot streak and the Week 17 matchup, but I see it differently.

The Bears will win the point of attack on both sides of the line. If Matthews is kept in check and Chicago’s offensive line mauls the Pack’s front seven, even Woodson and the scorching-hot Williams won’t be able to do much against the Bears’ offense. As long as Cutler’s lasers avoid Woodson and Williams in the defensive backfield, the Bears should be able to move the ball with consistency.

As for Green Bay’s vaunted offense, remember this: in Week 17, when the Pack absolutely had to win the game to get into the playoffs, Rodgers had trouble getting the ball downfield. Now that the stakes are much higher, is it supposed to be easier? The Bears’ defense was second against the run in 2010. Chicago will outrun Green Bay and limit Rodgers’ chances.

Prediction:  Bears 27, Packers 21

New York Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)

(Sunday @ 6:30 p.m. EST—CBS)

Why the Jets can win:

• Track record. The Jets beat the Steelers 22-17 at Heinz Field in Week 15.
• Mark Sanchez. Not many people think of him as a strength, but the youngster has won four playoff road games (Cincinnati, San Diego, Indianapolis and New England) in two years for a reason. He’s a gamer.
• Bravado. The Jets have written a lot of checks with their mouths, and they know they’re under the gun to cash them in. If nothing else, the fear of public embarrassment after talking up their own abilities should motivate New York.
• Jason Taylor. Don’t underestimate a consummate professional seeking his first Super Bowl trip.
• Santonio Holmes. Pittsburgh is well aware of what Holmes can do with a tightly-thrown football and mere inches of corner real estate in an endzone. The Patriots found out the hard way last week.
• LaDanian Tomlinson. The veteran seems to be over his previous playoff struggles with San Diego and played well in the first two games of the playoffs.
• Darrelle Revis. The man has an island named after him for crying out loud. This week, his assignment is to maroon speedster Mike Wallace.

Why the Steelers can win:

• Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has led countless late-game drives with huge throws as the final seconds ticked away. Joe Montana and Tom Brady are cool customers on game-winning drives, but no one seems as unfazed by the gravity of a tough situation quite like Roethlisberger.
• Troy Polamalu. The best defensive back in football looked a step slow and a beat late last week, but No. 43 can still be counted on to deliver at least one game-changing play.
• Heinz Field. Forget Qwest Field’s baby earthquakes; Pittsburgh’s home field was so loud last week that attendants actually felt like the stands were going to come crashing down.
• Hines Ward. If anyone is going to stand up to Bart Scott, David Harris and the rest of the Jets’ defense, it will be fierce blocker and emotional leader Ward. An early crushing block springing a Rashard Mendenhall big gain could set the tempo for Pittsburgh.
• Shaun Suisham. It feels strange to type that, given that he wasn’t on a roster at midseason. But Suisham has figured out how to manage the difficult-to-kick-in Heinz Field and Nick Folk has not.
• Dick LeBeau. The mastermind behind Pittsburgh’s blitzing 3-4 attack won’t let Sanchez rest easy in the pocket.
• D’Brickashaw Ferguson. The left tackle has the unenviable task of controlling James Harrison, who usually draws at least one holding call per game. If the talented lineman can keep his hands off Harrison’s jersey, the Jets will nullify a major player in LeBeau’s scheme.

Who will win?

While the Jets did beat the Polamalu-less Steelers once at Heinz Field this year, New York was outgained by more than 100 yards and needed two Roethlisberger incompletions from the Jets’ 10-yard line as time expired to seal the win.

Big Ben’s big-game, Super Bowl experience trumps Sanchez’s road-warrior playoff experience. And while Rex Ryan has been great for the Jets (and the media), Mike Tomlin’s steady hand has guided the Steelers through rough waters before.

Pittsburgh doesn’t panic in big moments, largely because their coach is always on an even-keel when things go poorly. Both defenses are stout and the skill position players are comparable. So if this thing comes down to the quarterbacks (and the home crowd), it’s hard to see the AFC title bout going New York’s way.

Prediction:  Steelers 24, Jets 20

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