Bears Blitz

Published by Andrew Dannehy on November 7, 2013
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

After getting one big upset win over a divisional rival, the Chicago Bears have a short week, as they’ll host the Detroit Lions in a game for first place in the NFC North on Sunday.

The Lions were the first team to beat the Bears this season, as they forced four turnovers by quarterback Jay Cutler and Reggie Bush ran for 139 yards on just 18 carries. The Lions led 40-16 at one point, but the Bears scored two late touchdowns to cut the final to 40-32. 

Of course, the big question this week is, who will be under center for the Bears?

According to Larry Mayer of ChicagoBears.com, it appears that Cutler is going to start, barring a setback. Regardless of who is under center, the Bears’ offensive game plan should remain the same and slightly different from what it was the last time these two teams met.

The good news for the Bears is that they get another shot at the Lions, and this time it’s in Chicago. Two of the Lions’ three losses this season have come on the road, as they lost in Green Bay and Arizona while winning in Washington and Cleveland.

The Bears are 3-1 at home, with their only loss in Chicago coming to New Orleans.

The biggest changes the Bears are going to have to make from their first game against the Lions aren’t necessarily in their game plan, but in their execution. It was arguably the Bears’ sloppiest effort of the season.

Though it’s easy to point to their offense’s four turnovers as a key reason for the loss, their defense gave up scores on six consecutive drives in the first half. 

Offense: Get the Ball to the Playmakers

The first time these two teams met in 2013-14, the Bears basically ignored running back Matt Forte for the most crucial part of the game. They can’t do that again.

After Forte sprinted away for a 53-yard touchdown run, the Lions went on a 24-0 run in the second quarter. During that stretch, Forte touched the ball just three times. Two of those were runs up the middle whereas the third was a dump-off pass for eight yards on 3rd-and-21.

The Bears possessed the ball three times during that span. They threw an interception on the first play and the other two drives ended when they couldn’t convert on third down with 15 or more yards to go. 

Chicago simply can’t afford to let a very talented Detroit Lions defensive line tee off on 3rd-and-long this time around.

While Detroit is 14th in rushing yards allowed per game, it’s 28th in yards allowed per attempt and has allowed more runs of 40-plus yards than any team in the league.

According to the Adjusted Line Yards on Football Outsiders, the Lions are 30th at stopping power runs. Since Forte isn’t a typical power running back, that could mean quite a bit of playing time for Eben Britton. 

And if the Bears can get Forte to the second level, all bets are off. 

While the Lions have allowed more runs of 40-plus yards than any other team, the Bears are second in the league at getting them. While Forte’s speed and vision in the open field are some of the reasons for that, another part is that both receivers—Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery—are terrific blockers, as you can see in the screen shot below.

The Lions don’t just allow long runs either, as they’ve given seven passing plays of 40 or more yards this season—the fifth-most in the league.

The Lions’ pass defense in general isn’t great, as it ranks 26th in yards allowed per game and 21st in yards allowed per attempt, allowing 11.8 yards per completion. Therefore, the Bears should be able to throw against Detroit.

The key to their success could be what they do after they catch the ball.

The Bears haven’t gotten much in terms of yards after the catch with Cutler under center this season. He has accounted for 66.8 percent of his passing yards in the air, which is the highest percentage in the league. Only about 550 of Cutler’s passing yards have come after the catch, which comes out to an average of about 3.8 yards per completion.

It’s been a different story with McCown, however. Nearly half of his passing yards have come after the catch, as the Bears are averaging 6.6 yards after each completion.

The reasoning is simple. McCown doesn’t have nearly the same kind of arm Cutler does, so the Bears have been calling shorter passing plays. Even if Cutler is the quarterback, they should stick to that kind of scheme against Detroit.

If the Lions struggle to make tackles like they did in their last game, the Bears could rack up a lot of yards without throwing it down the field.

Early in the fourth quarter against the Dallas Cowboys, Terrance Williams turned a simple slant into a 60-yard touchdown. Later in the game, it was Dez Bryant catching a ball near the sideline with two defenders by him (see screen shot to the right). He caught the ball as both defenders dove by him and was able to sprint into the end zone for a 50-yard touchdown.

Of course, the Bears won’t be able to get the ball out to their playmakers if they don’t protect up front. They struggled with that the first time these teams played, but that was in a noisy environment and on turf.

In general, the Lions’ pass rush isn’t nearly as good as it’s hyped up to be. Detroit has just 13 sacks this year, which is one fewer than the Bears and 29th in the entire league. 

If the Bears can hold up on the offensive line like they did against Green Bay, they should score a lot of points.

Defense: Tackle, Tackle, Tackle

With as bad as the Bears defense has been this season, there are any number of areas to criticize, but it’s entirely possible that their worst area has been tackling.

This has been a point of emphasis this week. During his weekly press conference (via ChicagoBears.com), defensive coordinator Mel Tucker said the team’s biggest issue with stopping Green Bay’s ground game was “mostly missed tackles.”

This hasn’t been an issue in just one game. The Bears have allowed 177 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. They have the fourth-worst rushing defense in the league, giving up an average of 127.5 rushing yards per game.

Adam L. Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote about this topic, stating that the Bears have the second-most missed tackles in the league with 79. 

A big part of the reason they lost to the Lions the first time was because they could not bring down Bush. They simply have to be a lot better in that department this time around.

In the screen shot below, you see Chris Conte rushing into a gap and Lance Briggs also closing in on Bush. Somehow, both players missed him. Bush then got into the secondary, where Major Wright took a bad angle and allowed Bush to pick up 17 yards.

The big play that no one can seem to get out of their heads also featured some terrible tackling by the Bears. As you see below, Cornelius Washington had his hands on Bush while Wright was lining him up, but neither made the tackle. Bush went on to gain a 37-yard touchdown run that made the score 30-10.

In that first matchup against the Lions, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) credited the Bears defense with 11 missed tackles and 11 of the 16 players to play at least one defensive snap received a negative grade.

The Lions racked up 141 yards after the catch and 84 rushing yards after contact. That’s well over half of the total yardage (387) they had in the game.

What could help this time around is that the Bears will have Bush on grass, where he has been a different player.

According to his splits on ESPN.com, Bush has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry on grass compared to 4.6 when he plays on turf. In fact, in his three years as a starting running back, Bush has averaged 4.4 yards on grass and 4.9 on turf.

What might also help the Bears is that they’re starting Jon Bostic at middle linebacker this week as opposed to D.J. Williams, who was the starter last time they played.

Bostic doesn’t have the experience of Williams, but he’s more athletic and packs a punch when he arrives. Bush almost certainly doesn’t want to meet him in the hole. 

Obviously, containing Calvin Johnson is the top priority when playing the Lions. The Bears have done a good job of that in recent years, but—as they learned in the last matchup—that doesn’t matter if they don’t take care of the basics.

Unless otherwise noted, advanced statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

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