Brandon Marshall’s Updated 2014 Fantasy Outlook Heading into Week 5
Published by Tyler Conway on September 30, 2014
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears
The overarching theme of Brandon Marshall‘s 2014 season has been silence. Silence after games with reporters. Silence with his quarterback. And, more importantly, silence on the field.
Marshall, who is still dealing with the lingering effects of an ankle injury, caught two passes for 19 yards in the Bears‘ 38-17 loss to the Packers on Sunday. Over the past two weeks, he’s combined for 25 yards on three receptions.
So, the silence. The All-Pro wideout has not spoken to media after either down performance. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler told reporters after the game that he didn’t have a chance to talk with Marshall because “he was upset.”
Since injuring his ankle in Week 1, Marshall has clearly not been the same player. His value from an on-field and fantasy perspective has come only via touchdowns. Random three-touchdown games aside, Marshall is very clearly on pace for his worst season as a Bear and could finish with his worst numbers since his rookie season in Denver.
On film, you can see Marshall’s ankle has an obvious effect. Already not the fleetest of foot, he’s noticeably slower off the line and breaking his routes, which creates a much smaller throwing window. Cutler isn’t above forcing the ball to Marshall; he’s done it quite often and quite well throughout the pair’s time together.
The issue here is figuring out how Marshall can heal his body and still be ready on game day.
“Brandon was ready to play,” head coach Marc Trestman said, per Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times. “We’re going to take a good look at him this week to make sure he’s continuing to progress and he’s not getting any worse.”
The balance Trestman has struck so far has been keeping Marshall out of practice. As Finley highlights, he’s been on the field on days other than Sunday once since injuring his ankle. Marshall is a veteran who knows the scheme; practicing occasionally won’t kill his value. But the Bears’ offensive chemistry looked off at multiple points Sunday, most notably when Marshall ran the wrong route to cause a Cutler interception.
These are the results that begin adding up when a player doesn’t practice. With the Bears due in Carolina this week for what’s beginning to look like a solid matchup, it leaves fantasy owners in a conundrum about what to do now and going forward.
When Marshall is in the lineup, he’s established himself as a must-start. Even despite his pitiful beginning to 2014, his five touchdowns have managed to salvage his value; Marshall is currently the 14th-ranked fantasy receiver coming into Week 5. Cutler continually looks his direction in the red zone, to the point of remote control breakage for Alshon Jeffery owners.
Jeffery had five fewer touchdowns in 2013 despite a relatively similar target load, and it appears we’re headed for the same trend in 2014. Marshall has five touchdowns in his 32 targets. Jeffery has one touchdown in his…32 targets. Martellus Bennett has also become a vulture, grabbing four touchdowns in as many games.
All of this makes Chicago’s hierarchy tough to figure out when sitting down to do my weekly rankings. Jeffery is clearly the healthier of the two receivers, and he should find success against a Panthers defense that’s made two AFC North teams look like the 2013 Broncos in consecutive weeks. Teams on the macro level have had much more success running the football, but Joe Flacco didn’t throw for 327 yards and three touchdowns last week just because Steve Smith was angry.
When it came down to throwing the chips on the table, I had both Bears receivers inside my top 15, with Jeffery at No. 10 and Marshall at No. 14.
The reasoning was simple. Jeffery is more reliable at this point. He’s still coming back from an injury of his own but has been solid in the pair of games in which Marshall has struggled. Marshall, meanwhile, has become a touchdown-dependent player you hope can salvage his value through red-zone targets. Talent-wise, he is obviously more and I suspect two-catch weeks won’t become the norm, but it’s impossible to watch him live and not come away worried.
If someone looks only at Marshall’s points total and wants to give away Brandon Marshall value—e.g. a RB1 or a WR2 along with a RB2/3—I’d suggest pulling the trigger. The Bears don’t have a bye until Week 9. Their only recourse until then would be sitting Marshall out a week or two, at which point his value will drop and the window will close.
Again, start Marshall if you have him. His history with Cutler is too rich not to. Just don’t be surprised if Marshall’s vow of silence carries over a couple more weeks going forward.
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