Bears Blitz

Chicago Bears training camp and preseason have passed but nothing has changed.

With the regular season starting Sunday in Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers, the Bears have neither calmed fears nor definitively proven any perceived strengths.

Such is the nature of playing without game plans, or looking at personnel rather than trying all-out to win.

Certainly flashes of quarterback Jay Cutler’s brilliance surfaced against the New York Giants in Week 2 of preseason.

Beyond that, the Bears enter the regular season with potential for a division title or a third-place finish.

But we already knew that.

Here is how the 2009 season shakes down as we brace for a battle with the Cheeseheads.

Passing game
The Bears’ lack of proven receivers didn’t get solved by Juaquin Iglesias making five catches in the fourth preseason game, Johnny Knox hauling in a 43-yard pass, or even Devin Aromashodu earning Cutler’s support for a roster spot.

Devin Hester’s inexperience at wide receiver surfaced almost immediately in preseason. Earl Bennett made a few catches, but did to indicate he has a special connection with Cutler just because the two played together at Vanderbilt.

Aromashodu is only potential in a 6’3″ frame at this point.

Cutler did put his arm and athletic ability on display in wins over Denver and the Giants, which provides some hope. 

The Bears’ stated philosophy is the good quarterback can make the receivers. The good receivers rarely make the good quarterback.

In Cutler they trust. It’s too late to backtrack on this now.

At least Cutler knows he has tight ends. The Bears are going to be able to attack with double tight end formations using proven threats Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark.

They’re blessed with depth at a position where most teams struggle to find just one threat.

Running game
It’s the supposed strength of the offense, but is it really?

The depth the Bears boasted completely vanished with Kevin Jones’ season-ending knee injury last week.

Contrary to expectations, they failed to add a back who had been cut by other teams. It’s up to Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolf to give Matt Forte a rest now and again.

Even with Forte last year, the Bears averaged only 3.9 yards per carry on the ground, 26th in the league. The hope is Cutler’s arm will force defenses off the line of scrimmage and allow Forte more running room.

There’s an awful lot being pinned on Cutler’s right arm and it goes beyond the passing game.

Line play
A few plays in preseason—particularly during the road games at Denver and Buffalo—left tackle Orlando Pace looking like the aging veteran ready for retirement that St. Louis saw last year. Then he would go for several series looking like a rejuvenated force protecting Cutler’s blind side.

The Bears on the road likely will need to give him protection with tight ends and backs against defenses that extensively utilize blitzes or who have standout pass rushers.

However, as camp went on, it became apparent Pace still has a lot left, and new starting left guard Frank Omiyale can be both a devastating run blocker and effective pass blocker. 

Better yet, second-year right tackle Chris Williams quietly went through preseason getting his job done without much fanfare—always a good thing for linemen.
The line does look bigger and definitely has more talent. Meshing as a unit will be the goal early in the season.

Pass defense
It all rests on the pass rush from their front four and defensive tackle Tommie Harris’ health.

In fact, the entire fate of the Bears defense rides on Harris’ ability to be aggressive and demand double teams.

Defensive ends Adewale Ogunleye, Alex Brown, and Mark Anderson can then work one-on-one for the most part, and with pass rush pressure the inexperienced secondary can stay in cover-2 and make plays on the ball.

On the positive side, Harris has appeared to have explosion and stamina in limited preseason play. On the negative side, he only played in tiny bits and pieces. The Bears can’t be sure of his recovery time until after he has to go a full game.

Danieal Manning, Al Afalava, Kevin Payne, and Zack Bowman will scare no one on their own. They must have the support of constant pressure on the passer.

Run defense
One positive that came out of preseason is the continued growth of Marcus Harrison. Of course, he had continued growth of a different kind prior to training camp, but once he lost the weight he showed he can become a real force on the defensive line at either nose tackle or the “three-technique” spot.

Harrison, Anthony Adams, and Harris should help keep runners from getting beyond the line before they have to make a cut.

Linebacker Brian Urlacher looks noticeably larger in the neck and shoulders this year with a full season to work on weights, and he, Lance Briggs, and Pisa Tinoisamoa give the Bears their best group of linebackers in Lovie Smith’s tenure. It’s the deepest group of linebackers, as well.

The Bears’ defensive front won’t prove its worth until shutting down Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, which they’ve never been able to do.

The schedule
Based on last year’s records, this was the easiest schedule in the league.

Of course, that didn’t take into account the drastic improvement within the NFC North that is already apparent. Six games in a tougher division takes care of much of that schedule weakness. The start of their schedule—going to Green Bay, facing the world champions at home, then going out to Seattle, where they never seem to play well—could make for a possible 1-2 or 0-3 start.

Then the easier portion of the schedule should let them catch their breath until they get to the vital division opponents late in the season.

Still, they’re playing Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Atlanta, Arizona, and both Minnesota and Green Bay twice.

The prediction
This looks like a 10-6 team assuming the continued good health of Cutler, Forte, and Harris.

In another division in another season, this might be a 12-4 or 11-5 team.

The NFC North looks greatly improved and it could wind up being a case where they inflict so much damage on each other, that only one or possibly none of the non-division winners will earn a wild card.

Yet the two other NFC North teams have their problems. The Vikings have the Brett Favre rift to worry about, in addition to the potential loss of the Williamses when the Minnesota court system inevitably is prevented by higher courts from blocking their suspensions. The Packers may have Dom Capers and a 3-4 defense, but all the pieces are not perfect fits and they’ll have a while early when the defense struggles.

Put the Bears down for a 10-6 wild card spot, with an outside shot at getting into the NFC championship game.

In Cutler they trust.