Bears Blitz

Published by Bryan Dietzler on January 1, 2011
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

The 11-4 Chicago Bears, coming off of a 38-34 shootout win over the New York Jets last week will travel to Green Bay to take on their biggest rival, the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon.  Green Bay beat the New York Giants on Sunday 45-17 and need a win in order to make the playoffs as a Wild Card.

Being that this is a division game with important playoff implications for both sides (remember that if the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints lose their games this Sunday the Bears will end up being the No. 1 seed in the NFC) this will be a hard-fought game.  But pile on the fact that this is a division game between two hated rivals, it promises to be as hard-hitting as they get.

So which team has the edge in this game?  Would it be wise for the Bears to rest their starters?  Will Chicago go for the sweep of their division?

Let’s find out in this extended preview of the Chicago Bears versus the Green Bay Packers game Sunday in Green Bay.

 

When the Bears Have the Ball

Chicago’s offense has been getting progressively better (minus the slip-up against the Patriots a couple weeks ago) and they took over the game last week against the Jets and led the team to a win (when the defense struggled to keep the Jets from scoring).  It was nice to see the offense do that and it gives everyone a lot of confidence in that unit.

The offense is led by quarterback Jay Cutler and he has improved a lot since the bye week.  Cutler, along with the rest of the Bears passing game, is averaging 193 yards per game while the Packers are allowing teams to gain 199 yards per game.  Things should even out here but if these teams get into a shootout, the Bears could put up a lot of yards through the air.

As the season has gone on, the Bears have stretched the field more and more with their wide receivers and as we saw in the Bears’ last few games, they have been getting those nice long touchdown passes.  Both Johnny Knox and Devin Hester are good deep threats for Cutler and he’s been finding them farther and farther down the field in each passing game.

Chicago can handle the Packers pass defense by giving Cutler time to throw the ball (and the offensive line is getting better so he is getting that protection) allowing him to complete those short passes (when he needs to throw it to a hot receiver during a blitz) or the intermediate to long-range passes that he has had some great success with over the past two games.  The Bears are no longer becoming a short passing team and that’s putting opposing defenses on notice.

To go along with the passing game, the Bears running game is getting better and helping the offense keep defenses off balance.  Running back Matt Forte has almost 1,000 yards this season and has helped Chicago’s offense find the balance that it needs to take control of games and win them.  Forte has returned to his “old self” after suffering through a knee injury for most of last season and his value cannot be denied.

Chicago is averaging around 100 yards on the ground per game while Green Bay’s defense is allowing 115 yards per game so the Bears should be able to find some success running the ball.  That will be important because Chicago will want to keep the ball out of quarterback Aaron Rodgers hands as much as possible so look for them to run the ball often on offense.

If the Bears end up getting into a shootout with the Packers which is very likely, we know that they have the tools on offense to keep up and not let Green Bay get too far ahead.  In some ways, a shootout might be a good thing because it will help the offense see what it’s capable of and show that it can get into a shootout in the playoffs and still win the game.

 

When the Packers Have the Ball

Green Bay has been hot on offense for the past few games and we saw what they can do offensively in their game against the Giants last week.  The whole show is run by Rodgers who is one of the NFC’s most capable quarterbacks and he has plenty of weapons surrounding him in the passing game to get things done.

The Packers offense is averaging 260 yards of passing per game, which is near the top of the league.  Chicago’s defense has been allowing teams to average 224 yards per game and some of this has come because teams have found themselves behind the Bears and have been forced to catch up.  Still, some of these yards have come in recent weeks because the Bears defense hasn’t been able to get enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks allowing teams to be able to dink and dunk their way down the field.

If Chicago wants to beat the Packers they need to get pressure on Rodgers.  Through 15 games this season, Packers quarterbacks have been sacked a total of 36 times so they can be pressured and that’s exactly what the Bears need to do in order to win this game.

Chicago cannot afford to be exposed in the secondary like they were against the Jets and Patriots.  Those teams were able to use short passes in the open seams and open areas of Chicago’s Cover 2 defense to move down the field and score.  This came as a result of the lack of pass pressure that the front four was able to generate and it’s true that if the Bears can’t generate pass pressure then they will not have success defending Rodgers and the Packers passing attack.

The key in their first game was the presence of defensive end Julius Peppers.  While he didn’t have any sacks in that game, he caused three penalties to happen (on the Packers offensive line) and kept Green Bay’s offensive on guard.  Peppers needs to have the same kind of effect in this game as well and if he does then the Bears will find some success.

Ever since the beginning of the season, after their primary running back Ryan Grant got hurt, the Packers have had their struggles in the running game.  They are averaging 103 yards on the ground per game, which isn’t bad but it has come in spurts.  The Bears defense is allowing teams an average of 118 yards on the ground but this number is a little bit deceiving.  They have successfully shut down some of the league’s best rushers including Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson and the New York Jets’ Shonn Greene.

It’s doubtful that the Packers will try to run the ball that much unless they get the lead so look for them to run it less to start.  If the Bears shut down the run totally if Green Bay does try to run it then there won’t be much running coming out of the Packers offense.

So what do the Bears need to do to stop Green Bay?  First, pressure on Rodgers is the key and where it will all start.  They must get pressure from the front four and if they can’t do that, they need to throw a linebacker into the mix to help shake things up.  That will hurt them in coverage but if it means getting to Rodgers it might be worth it.

The Bears secondary needs to play very well and stick to the Packers wide receivers.  They need to pay particular attention to wide receiver Greg Jennings as he has become a big-time target for Rodgers this season.  Good coverage will help the Bears go a long way toward winning this game.

 

Special Teams

With the Bears, special teams are always a big part of the game so we start off looking at this unit with a question.  Will the Packers kick to Hester?  Hester is a problem each and every time he has gotten his hands on the ball so the Packers may choose not to kick to him.  What does this mean?  It means that they will give the Bears good field position for the most part and the Bears offense is well adept at taking advantage of good field position.

The coverage units are still suspect and it’s important that they don’t allow the Packers to have the short field because the longer the field the better Chicago’s defense plays.

 

Injury Report

The Bears and the Packers list the following players on their respective injury reports:

Chicago Bears

WR Earl Bennett—Ankle—Questionable; C Olin Kreutz—Not Injury Related—Will Play; LB Pisa Tinoisamoa—Knee—Questionable.

 

Green Bay Packers

LB Frank Zombo—Knee—Questionable; DE Ryan Pickett—Ankle—Probable; DE Cullen Jenkins—Calf—Questionable; CB Charles Woodson—Toe—Probable; G Marshall Newhouse—Back—Doubtful; LB Clay Matthews—Shin—Probable; LB Erik Walden—Quadriceps—Probable; S Nick Collins—Ribs—Questionable; RB Kory Hall—Knee—Out; OT Chad Clifton—Both Knees—Questionable; CB Sam Shields—Knee—Questionable; S Atari Bigby—Groin—Out; C Scott Wells—Back—Questionable.

The Bears may choose to sit some guys this week and get them rested up for the playoffs.  It’s possible two of these guys could be Bennett and Tinoisamoa.  The Packers have their usual bevy of players on the injured report and some of the more critical ones include injuries to Pickett, Woodson and Hall.  The Packers have been hit hard by injuries but somehow they manage to get by, plug guys in and keep on going.

 

Analysis

So what will the Bears decide to do?  Will they decide to go for the win and try to sweep their division and also knock their most hated rival out of the playoffs or will they attempt to play it safe, rest their starters for the playoffs and quite possibly lose the game?

The Bears should decide to go ahead and win this game not only to keep the Packers from reaching the playoffs and, of course, beat their biggest rival but to also carry some momentum into the postseason.  There have been several debates as to whether or not the Bears should withhold playing their starters because of injuries while others feel that the Bears should play them because it would help keep them in rhythm and not let them get rusty.

It’s an interesting debate and one that will go on even after the game is over but let’s just assume that the Bears go ahead and play to win this game.

Chicago needs to control the ball and the clock and not allow Green Bay’s offense to be on the field that long or they will win the game.  This means that the Bears will need to run the ball early and often and use the short, controlled passing game to help them keep possession and milk the clock.  If the Bears find themselves in a shootout, we do know that they can keep up the pace and stick with teams that are scoring a lot of points but hopefully it doesn’t come to that.

The defense has struggled at times this season against defenses that can get the ball into the tight spaces within the Cover 2 defense (teams like the Patriots and the Jets) and Green Bay has the type of offense that can pick the Bears defense apart if they can’t get pressure on the quarterback.  That’s why pressure will be key for the Bears in this game.  If they fail to get pressure, they could choose to blitz a linebacker and they have done that with success before.

The Bears secondary needs to tighten things up and make sure that they don’t allow the Packers receivers to get behind them and get some big gains or scores.  They need to keep the play in front of them (like the typical Cover 2 defense calls for), make the play quickly and keep the long gains to a minimum.

On offense, the Bears need to control the ball and the clock as much as possible and keep the ball out of the hands of Green Bay’s offense as much as they can.  The less time that Rodgers and company have the ball the less time they have to make things difficult for the Bears so look for Chicago to make a strong effort to possess the ball as much and as long as possible.

We all saw what Cutler and the rest of the offense could do last week against the Jets using some long passes to connect with his guys down field for some big touchdown passes.  Can he do it against the Packers?  As long as he gets time to throw the ball and his receivers have the time to get open, he can connect with those guys down the field and make something happen.  We saw it against the Vikings and the Jets and he should be able to do it against the Packers.

The Bears will have their running game going as well and should use it plenty in this game.  Remember that the weather will be cold and passing is always more difficult when it’s cold out so Chicago should look at running the ball often in this game.  It would also be nice to see Forte get his 1,000 rushing yards.

Special teams could play a pivotal role in this game much like it did in the first game between these two teams.  If the Packers do end up kicking to Hester, they stand a risk of having him rip them apart in the return game as he can and will give the Bears offense excellent field position.

 

Prediction

If the Bears end up playing their starters for all or a better part of the game then they have a great chance of winning this game.  Remember that Chicago needs a win and losses by both the Falcons and the Saints in order to win home-field advantage throughout the playoffs so if they find that things are starting to look their way, they may play their starters and play this game to really win it.  If that’s the case then the Bears should win this game.

Chicago 24, Green Bay 21

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