Chicago Bears Vs. Green Bay Packers: Who Wins the NFC North? UPDATED
Published by Big Chil on December 9, 2010
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears
***************UPDATED***************
After Week 14’s performances, Chicago‘s 36-7 loss to New England, and Green Bay’s disastrous 7-3 loss to Detroit, here are the new magic numbers:
Chicago: Overall 9-4; Division 4-0;
Green Bay: Overall 8-5; Division 3-2;
If Chicago wins its next two games, versus Minnesota and the New York Jets, they win the division with no worse than an 11-5 tie between the two teams, and winning the divisional tiebreaker 5-1 to 4-2.
If Chicago beats Minnesota, improving its record to 10-4 and its divisional tiebreaker to 5-0, AND the Packers lose to New England OR the New York Giants, the Bears also win the division, with no worse than a 10-6 tie and 5-1 divisional tiebreaker over the Packers’ 4-2.
The loss to Detroit was a disaster for Green Bay. There are several scenarios in which Green Bay can still win the division. Most of them involve the Bears losing to Minnesota and the Packers beating the best team in football, New England, on the road.
If that happens, the teams will be tied at 9-5, overall. A second Bears loss versus the Jets, then would either hand the division to the Packers with a win @NYG (the Packers would then have the #3 common opponents tiebreaker in hand, rendering Week 17 moot) or a Packers loss to the Giants would make Week 17 a winner-take-all affair.
If the Packers cannot beat New England, they need the Bears to lose both at Minnesota and the New York Jets while winning their last two games.
Advantage Bears
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Bad news, Bears fans. If the Packers win their remaining four games, they’ll finish in first place in the NFC North. Here’s why:
The Bears are currently 9-3 and in first place in the NFC North, while the Packers trail by a game at 8-4.
If the Packers win their remaining games and end up 12-4 and the Bears go 3-1, with the final loss at Green Bay, also ending up 12-4, Green Bay wins the tiebreaker.
Here are the NFL Divisional tiebreaking procedures:
1. Head-to-head record: The Bears currently own this, 1-0.
2. Divisional record: The Bears currently own this 4-0, compared to the Packers’ 3-1.
3. Record versus common opponents: The Packers and Bears are tied at 6-2, with 3 common opponents remaining.
4. Conference record: The Bears currently own this, at 7-3 versus the Packers’ 6-3. Both teams will have 12 conference games played at season end.
5. Strength of Victory: This is the cumulative winning percentage of teams beaten. After Week 13, the Packers currently own this with a .684 (39-57) percentage versus the Bears’ .542 (38-70) percent.
Yes, both teams have only beaten two winning teams this year, and in addition, the Bears also beat a .500 team, the Miami Dolphins, while the Packers did not and have not.
So, if Green Bay can go 4-0 and end up tying a 3-1 Bears’ best at season end, the tie-breakers will be as follows:
1. Head-to-head record: Equal 1-1.
2. Divisional record: Equal 5-1.
3. Record versus common opponents: Equal 9-3.
4. Conference record: Packers 9-3, Bears 8-4.
5. Strength of Victory: Based on Week 13 standings, the Packers would win a rare 5th level NFL divisional tiebreaker .907 to .734.
Of course, if the Bears go 4-0, they win the division—moot point.
Let’s analyze the more likely 3-1, 2-2 scenarios between the Bears and the Packers.
Both teams have extremely tough end schedules.
Chicago Bears:
Week 14 New England
Week 15 @ Minnesota
Week 16 New York Jets
Week 17 @ Green Bay
Green Bay Packers:
Week 14 @ Detroit
Week 15 @ New England
Week 16 New York Giants
Week 17 Chicago Bears
As I said, if the Packers win out, they win the division. But, more likely than not, they won’t. The key is to WHICH game(s) they lose.
If the Packers lose this Sunday to Detroit, a team which scores points in bunches, and only lost to the Packers by two and the Bears by five and four, they lose the No. 2 tiebreaker, divisional record and almost any chance of winning the division. The Bears would only need to go 2-2, with a win at Minnesota to clinch the division at that point.
If the Bears lose to New England on Sunday, and the Packers beat Detroit, that’s where the scenario gets truly interesting. Both teams would be tied at 9-4.
The Bears would still own the first two tiebreakers, and the Packers would move ahead by one game in the third, common opponents tiebreaker, and the two teams would be tied for the fourth, conference record tiebreaker.
With three games left and the Bears still ranked first, how will the rest of the season play out?
The Bears go on to winnable games versus Minnesota and the New York Jets. The Minnesota game proves statistically crucial if the Packers lose to Detroit. The Jets have only beaten one winning team this year and have shown they can be shut down by Green Bay, a good defense and New England, a not so good defense.
The Packers face three winning teams in a row after Detroit, the Pats, the Giants and da Bears.
So, what does it take, statistically, for the Bears-Packers game to be winner takes it all?
Well, if both teams go 3-0, winner takes all in Week 17.
The Bears have less to worry about “dropping one” than the Pack.
If the Packers drop the Detroit game, they’ll be playing for the Wild Card.
Even if the Bears lose to New England, and Green Bay beats Detroit, the Packers have to beat two tougher opponents—New England on the road and the Giants at home—than the Bears do—Minnesota on the road and the Jets at home—to set up the divisional showdown.
Advantage Bears
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