Bears Blitz

Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Published by OddsShark.com on October 21, 2014
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears might be experiencing some dissension in the locker room after a home loss to Miami on Sunday, but maybe a road trip will do them good considering they’re 3-1 both straight up and against the spread away from home this season.

The Bears are on the road again this week, heading to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Patriots opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.4-20.1 Patriots

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears had outgained three opponents in a row before suffering a letdown last week, losing at home to the Dolphins 27-14.

Chicago won’t find much good film of Sunday’s game, so maybe coach Marc Trestman should show the films from the 27-13 victory at Atlanta the previous week, or the first three quarters of the game at Carolina, or the first half of the game against Green Bay when the Bears offense moved up and down the field almost at will.

So far this season Chicago just seems to play better on the road than at Soldier Field; the Bears already own road victories over San Francisco, the Jets and the Falcons.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

Since getting their butts kicked in that Monday night game at Kansas City a few weeks ago, the Patriots have won three in a row, covering in two of those contests. Last Thursday, New England held off the rival Jets 27-25, even though it was outgained 423-323.

But quarterback Tom Brady did what he had to do, hitting on 20-of-37 throws for 261 yards and three touchdowns while getting help from running back Shane Vereen, who produced 114 yards from scrimmage and caught two of those touchdown passes.

The Patriots are averaging only 103 yards per game on the ground, but imagine what Brady might do to that porous Chicago pass defense.

Smart Pick

Coach Trestman might like to throw the ball around but the Bears are best when running back Matt Forte gets his carries. And the New England defense, now without linebacker Jerod Mayo, just gave up 218 yards rushing to the Jets. The Patriots might get their points, but Chicago has enough on offense to keep this one close.

So the smart money resides with the Bears, even if you don’t buy the argument that they can break New England’s 18-game winning streak in home games in October.

Betting trends