Bears Blitz

Published by OddsShark.com on November 11, 2015
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears (3-5) will go for their second road win in as many weeks when they visit the St. Louis Rams (4-4) on Sunday. The Bears are coming off a 22-19 upset of the San Diego Chargers as 3.5-point underdogs Monday night to end a two-game losing streak overall, while the Rams lost on the road to another NFC North team—the Minnesota Vikings—in overtime 21-18 as two-point dogs Sunday.

Point spread: The Rams opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.6-13.9 Rams

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago is 3-0 against the AFC West this year and 0-5 versus the rest of the NFL, which is all NFC teams. The Bears have already lost to the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, while their other opponents so far have been divisional teams. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last five.

St. Louis is the second-lowest scoring team in the NFC West and would be struggling even more offensively if not for the emergence of rookie running back Todd Gurley, who has rushed for 664 yards and four touchdowns in just six games. Rams quarterback Nick Foles is not much of a threat through the air, so the key to beating them is to limit Gurley on the ground and keep him from breaking any big plays.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

After winning three of four games straight up and ATS, St. Louis suffered a setback last week at Minnesota as a two-point underdog. The fact that the line was not bigger says a lot about the respect oddsmakers have for the Rams this year. They are 3-0 SU and ATS against their divisional opponents but 0-2 SU and ATS versus the NFC North, although both of those games took place on the road.

The team’s lone home loss this season took place in Week 3, when the Pittsburgh Steelers won 12-6 despite losing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to a knee injury. However, Gurley had only six carries in that game for nine yards and did not become a bigger part of the offense until the following week. Chicago has surrendered 121.6 rushing yards per game, so Gurley should be able to have his way with the Bears defense.

Smart pick

The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the St. Louis defense is much better than the teams Chicago has beaten this year. The Rams will be able to pressure Bears quarterback Jay Cutler into a few mistakes that will likely cost Chicago the game. Cutler was fortunate that his fumble and his interception that was returned for a touchdown at San Diego were not the difference there. Back St. Louis to win and cover the spread.

Betting trends

• The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 10.
• The Rams are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games after a loss.
• The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Rams.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

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