Could Brian Hoyer Be a Better Option for the Bears Than Jay Cutler?
Published by Brad Gagnon on October 7, 2016
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears
Brian Hoyer looks as though he’ll make his third consecutive start in place of the injured Jay Cutler when the Chicago Bears play the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. But there are many onlookers who feel as though Hoyer should be Chicago’s starter regardless of Cutler’s health.
They might be on to something.
After all, there’s something to be said for going with the hot hand. And two-and-a-half games into his run as Chicago’s interim starter, Hoyer is one of just eight qualified quarterbacks with a passer rating in the triple digits. He has one turnover and zero interceptions on 101 dropbacks and 97 pass attempts, Pro Football Focus grades him as the second-best quarterback in the league, and he actually led the depleted Bears to an impressive victory over the Detroit Lions in Week 4.
In back-to-back losses to kick off the season, Cutler turned the ball over three times on 55 dropbacks while posting a passer rating of 75.7 before suffering a thumb injury in Week 2. If qualified, that would be the sixth-worst rating in the NFL. PFF ranks him in the bottom 10 among qualifiers.
There are also indications that Hoyer has done a better job handling pressure. His sack rate (3.0) is the third-lowest in the league, while Cutler’s abysmal 14.8 sack rate ranks dead last among quarterbacks who have started at least one game. That’s a small, exaggerated sample, but Hoyer’s career sack rate is also lower.
And sure, it’s possible that, for whatever reason, an offensive line that has used the exact same five starters on every snap this season has been better for Hoyer than it has for Cutler. Cutler did face two defenses, Houston and Philadelphia, that Football Outsiders ranks in the top five against the pass and PFF ranks in the top eight in terms of pass-rushing prowess. Meanwhile, Hoyer has faced the two worst pass rushes in the league, according to PFF. And the Bears failed to establish themselves on the ground until Week 4.
But both quarterbacks faced Philly in Week 2. Cutler was sacked three times on 20 dropbacks, while Hoyer was sacked zero times on 12. And according to PFF, Cutler has been sacked on a league-high 30.8 percent of his pressured dropbacks, while Hoyer has been sacked on only 11.4 percent. That’s the fourth-lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks.
It’s also worth noting that both the tape and the numbers from PFF indicate Hoyer typically gets rid of the ball a split second faster than Cutler did, which can make a world of difference. Watch him closely and you’ll see a veteran quarterback who has done his homework and is moving his offense along in a surprisingly efficient and productive fashion.
So you can understand why, when he was asked about Hoyer’s status, Bears head coach John Fox said this, per CBS Chicago’s Chris Emma:
Still, consider the sample size. Hoyer actually had a much higher sack percentage (21.4) than Cutler (14.4) last season, and his overall numbers under pressure were far superior. Plus, his career numbers are still slightly better than Hoyer’s.
Hoyer might not be capable of making some of the throws Cutler makes—per PFF, Cutler is 4-of-6 on passes that have traveled 20-plus yards this year, while Hoyer is 4-of-13—but that can be a blessing. Hoyer takes fewer chances and takes better care of the ball (see the much lower interception rate). And right now, after seeing Cutler throw 104 interceptions in 97 starts between 2009 and 2015, that might be just what the Bears need.
It’s also worth noting that Hoyer has won more starts than he’s lost, while Cutler has lost more starts than he’s won. This isn’t an individual sport, so it’s dangerous to read too deeply into numbers like those, but it can’t be ignored that among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts in the fourth quarter of one-score games since 2013, Hoyer has the league’s fifth-highest yards-per-attempt average.
Most importantly, Hoyer looks as though he’s in complete control of an offense he joined just five months ago. The Bears do appear to be keeping things simple for him, but again, maybe that’s exactly what this team needed.
And it’s not as though they’ve been too conservative. Hoyer has completed 15 of his 21 pass attempts on third down, where he’s averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. That’s much better than Cutler, who completed just six passes on 14 third-down attempts to start the season. Hoyer hasn’t thrown beyond the sticks as frequently as he’ll eventually have to when defensive coordinators adjust to prevent him from successfully checking down as often as he has, but that’s not a major issue at this stage.
And although the Bears were losing big, he made several fantastic deep throws in the second half of his first start against the Dallas Cowboys, but a couple of drops hurt his cause.
This might not last. Hoyer could stink it up against a beatable Colts team Sunday, giving Cutler a chance to retake the starting job without controversy when he’s healthy. That would probably make things easier for the team from a PR standpoint, since Cutler is the $18-million-a-year face of the franchise and Hoyer is a $2-million-a-year journeyman on his sixth NFL roster.
But until Hoyer does something to lose the starting job, the Bears might have no choice but to keep their supposed franchise quarterback on the sideline.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.
Read more Chicago Bears news on BleacherReport.com
