Bears Blitz

Published by Bear Heiser on December 3, 2014
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

Despite being an extremely extreme long shot to make the postseason, the Chicago Bears still have to play football games with pads on. Some would say that’s unfortunate given the tailspin the NFL’s charter organization currently is stuck in.

What happened against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day must have coaches and players alike feeling like the hardest times have come. But the season is likely to get worse before it gets any better given the 8-4 Dallas Cowboys are coming to town, despite what anyone inside the organization says, even coach Marc Trestman:

We have true professionals here, we got an obligation to perform at the highest level possible on Thursday night in front of our fans at Soldier Field. We are trying to get three wins in a row at Soldier Field, trying to get back on the winning track there and stay on the winning track there. So (continuing to improve) is important to our players.

While there is some truth to what Trestman is saying, the message no longer matters to anyone outside of the organization. Once the season ends in a couple of weeks, all anyone is going to be talking about when it comes to the Bears is which coaches should lose their jobs.

We don’t yet know what the future holds for Trestman, defensive coordinator Mel Tucker and just about every other coach on the staff, but we do know that what happens Thursday night will go a long way in determining which way the fans and organization lean this week.

Nearly everyone within the organization is going to be sitting with their fingers crossed, hoping for some sort of Thursday night miracle, hoping the Trestman-led Bears can find a way to trounce the Cowboys and use the momentum to run the table and finish above .500, so management can sell a theme of “progress” to the fans.

But the only trouncing that is likely to happen Thursday at Soldier Field is what Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray is going to do to the Bears defense. Murray is really good at football. Like, really good. The Cowboys’ running back leads the league in rushing attempts (46 ahead od second place and 72 ahead of third place), rushing yards and rushes of 15 yards or more.

Fans in Chicago likely don’t remember what Murray did to the Bears last time he played at Soldier Field (18 carries for 146 yards), and that’s because the Bears absolutely, positively dominated the Cowboys on a snowy, frigid December night on the lakefront.

“For me, that turns me on a little bit to come into someone’s house and hear the boos and all that,” Murray said of playing on the road, via Joe Machota of The Dallas Morning News. “I think it’s a great thing, and you’ve just got to focus and have more patience on the road, so I think we’ll be fine.”

Murray is actually a better player this season. For starters, he’s been able to stay healthy. He runs with more patience, with more more awareness of where his blockers are on the field. He leads the league in yards after contact (2.9). He presents the biggest of challenges to the Bears defense.

“He’s got a great line,” Trestman said of Murray. “He’s got great structure. He’s got speed and power. He’s got it all.”

Because the struggling Dallas defense has given up 61 points in the past two games, with one win and one loss to show for it, the Cowboys most certainly continue to use Murray as the focal point of the offense.

When Murray carries the ball at least 22 times, the Cowboys are 7-1. When he carries it under 22 times, the Cowboys are 1-3. Murray comes in averaging 118.9 rushing yards per game. He makes his money on runs up the gut and outside the tackles, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

The Bears defense has been allowing 105.5 yards per game this season, 10th-best in the league. Last week’s effort against Detroit’s Joique Bell was fairly solid, holding the Lions rusher to 91 yards on 23 carries. Remove the 22-yard carry Bell snatched late in the game, after it was all but over, and the Bears only allowed 69 yards on 22 carries.

So if you’re more of an optimist, when it counted, the Bears held Bell to a 3.13 yards-per-attempt average. Through 12 games, the seemingly resurgent facet of the defensive unit has allowed 1,266 yards, fewer than half of the team’s 2013 total (2,583).

“You just know that you have to stop the run,” Tucker said of the Cowboys’ rushing attack. “And that’s regardless of the situation. “Second-and-long, they’ll run the ball. First-and-10, they’ll run the ball. They can be down two scores and still look to run the ball.”

When Murray goes, so do Tony Romo and the Cowboys. But Romo struggled last week in the loss to Philadelphia, throwing for 199 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. In the seven games leading up to Thanksgiving Day, Romo threw 13 touchdowns to only two interceptions.

Quite frankly, the Cowboys’ quarterback didn’t look healthy. He moved gingerly, bracing for contact whenever he could, as if to absorb more of the blow than he normally would.

Romo is one of the toughest guys in the NFL, but the cold Chicago temperatures certainly will make any hit feel much worse than it would indoors. Romo has been dealing with various back injuries and is listed on the injury report with full participation Monday and Tuesday.

Slow down Murray and the rest of the Cowboys offense should slow down with it. No matter how slow the Cowboys offense gets, though, there’s little chance it will be on par with how slow this Bears offense has looked this season.

You all know the problems: questionable play-calling by the head coach, too many turnovers by the quarterback, too few runs for the running back and too many missed connections with the receivers. Chicago’s offense has been a calamity of errors. Given the current climate at Halas Hall, there’s no doubt Trestman will give Matt Forte more carries than he knows what to do with.

The run-pass balance on offense has been as lopsided as can be, 63.8 percent (457 dropbacks) to 36.2 percent (277 runs) this season. During Monday’s media session, Trestman for the millionth time acknowledged the need to run the ball more often (yet nothing ever seems to change):

We need to run the ball more than we did. The opportunity that we have against Dallas is to proceed forward and do a better job of putting balance in our attack, which opens up a lot of different things for us and has a residual effect on the defensive line as you move forward in the game.

How does the Cowboys offense compare? A Dallas quarterback has dropped back to pass (passing attempts + sacks taken) 389 times to 365 runs by Murray and Co. The takeaway from that stat is the following: Chicago’s offense has thrown the ball nearly 100 more times than Dallas and has run the ball nearly 100 fewer times.

Forte carried the ball only five times last week. Yes, five times. But that performance isn’t affecting the way Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett is looking at the matchup, via DallasCowboys.com:

“He’s almost half of their offense if you put it all together,” Garrett said. “Very versatile, very productive, and they use him really well…similar to what Philly does in using their backs a lot of different ways so you know I think teams who do this challenge you and you have make sure to be on the screws in defending it.”

In last season’s matchup, Forte had 20 carries for 102 yards and seven receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown. He was all over the rock-solid (frozen) football field.

While Forte appears to be on track for a big game on the ground, don’t think Trestman will allow the Bears to escape without Jay Cutler throwing a handful of bubble screens, smoke screens and any other kind of screen you can think of.

The number of times the Bears play it close to the line of scrimmage is staggering. You can read more about it here. But take a look below for a snippet:

The Bears call plays of this variety (passes thrown nine yards or less + runs) 80.7 percent of the time. For this example, let’s say the Bears start every drive at their own 20-yard line. To go 80 yards at a 5.22 yard-per-play tilt will take 15.3 plays to reach the end zone.

Sustaining 15-play drives with the most turnover-prone quarterback in the league under center is not a winning formula. The 5.22 yards per play ranks 22nd in the NFL, according to TeamRankings.com, which isn’t far off from the Bears 21st-ranked scoring offense. It makes sense.

Cutler refers to this style of offense as “dink and dunk.” It’s just not sustainable over the course of a 16-game season. Maybe one game here or there. But not when the opposing team knows it’s coming week in and week out.

Trestman has talked a lot this season about “watching the tape” from past wins when it comes to finding positives to build upon. Those games would be Minnesota and Tampa Bay, both games saw Forte run the ball 26 and 23 times, respectively; his two highest totals of the season.

With everyone watching Thursday Night Football, the onus will be on Trestman, and Trestman only, to figure out this whole play-calling issue. When virtually everyone inside the organization believes the Bears need to run the football more often, you know the football needs to be run more often.

Trying to get everyone in a room on the same page is virtually impossible these days, so credit whoever spoke up for change at Halas Hall.

Speaking of change: The Cowboys are a model of change. Last season, Garrett’s play-calling led to nearly 275 more pass plays than runs, something that feels more similar to what the Bears have done this season. But things have changed in Dallas. And Garrett is still around to talk about it, via Eli Kaberon of ChicagoBears.com:

We want to control the line of scrimmage, be able to run the football and have a balanced attack that attacks defenses in a lot of different ways. So what we’ve tried to do is play to the strength of our personnel, and I think that’s an important thing for all coaches to do.

Hope you’re listening, Coach Trestman.

Prediction: Cowboys 38, Bears 21

Quotes pulled from press conference transcripts unless otherwise noted. Statistics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) unless otherwise noted.

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