Fantasy Football Crystal Ball: Jay Cutler
Published by Michael Whooley on August 6, 2009
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears
After a breakout year in 2007, Jay Cutler entered last season with the Denver Broncos surrounded by some big expectations. It appeared the Broncos had finally found their franchise quarterback in Cutler and reiterated that thought last season. In fact, those hopes were confirmed in the first game of the season when Cutler threw for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in helping lead the Broncos to a 41-14 dismantling of the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football.
Traditionally, Denver has been a strong running team, but the running backs position was a trauma ward in 2008, putting even more pressure on Cutler and the passing game to perform well. Cutler and the rest of the offense was up to the challenge, as the young quarterback finished the season with 4,526 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 18 interceptions while completing 62.3 percent of his passes.
In another example of Cutler’s growth, he took just 11 sacks, compared with 27 the season before, showing that he had increased his pocket awareness and presence. Unfortunately, the passing prowess did not translate to a successful season for Denver. After starting 4-1, the Broncos lost seven of their next 11 games to finish 8-8 and miss out on the playoffs. And, this is when things started to get interesting.
The off-season was a tumultuous one in Denver. Unsatisfied with the team’s performance, team owner Pat Bowlen fired head coach Mike Shanahan, who led the Broncos to two Super Bowl wins, and replaced him with former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. It wasn’t too long before reports started to surface that McDaniels was attempting to trade for Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel, a player McDaniels had helped develop, to start in place of Cutler. Upon hearing the news, Cutler became upset and demanded a trade. After months of back-and-forth from both sides, Cutler was finally traded to the Chicago Bears for quarterback Kyle Orton and draft picks.
So Cutler got his wish, was traded to a new team, and is now a Chicago Bear. There is a lot to evaluate here, so let’s take it piece by piece.
First, let’s take a look at Cutler’s statistical progression in his three years in Denver. His touchdown/interception ratio improved every year along with his completions, attempts, passing yards and sacks taken (in a full season). However, in 2008, his average yards per attempt was 7.3, which was .1 below his career 7.4 average and .2 below what he did in 2007. His completion percentage dropped from 63.6% two years ago to 62.3% last year, as did his quarterback rating, which went from 88.1 to 86.0.
While, ideally, you would like to see his completion percentage and his quarterback rating rise or at least remain the same, those numbers did not see anything close to a massive drop and were more likely connected to his big increase in attempts, which stemmed from the Broncos going to a pass-heavy offense because of the injuries at running back. He continues to progress or at least show good numbers across the board, so there is no concern about his individual performance.
But, there’s more to the story than Cutler’s individual performance. The NFL is a team game and going to Chicago means he has an entire new set of teammates surrounding him. That’s a good thing and a bad thing at the same time. The bad part is that he no longer has his favorite target to throw to in Brandon Marshall. In fact, Chicago has no receiver on the same level as Marshall. What the Bears do have at wide receiver is a bunch of young, unproven talents in guys like Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, Earl Bennett, Devin Aromashodu and Juaquin Iglesias. Hester and Davis have been with the Bears and know the system, but will need to prove they can step up this season. Bennett, Aromashodu and Iglesias are all great young talents for the Bears but are likely a year or two away from becoming solid, regular contributors.
At running back, Cutler’s got one of the best in the league to hand off to in Matt Forte, which should help take some pressure off of the QB.
Protecting Cutler is what should be an improved offensive line with guys like tackles Chris Williams, Orlando Pace and Kevin Shaffer, guard Roberto Garza and center Olin Kreutz. The offensive line should be better this year for Cutler than it was last year in Denver.
The problem with Cutler in going to a new team is just that—the fact that he is on a new team. He spent the last three years getting acclimated to everything in Denver including the coaches, the teammates, the playbook, the scheme, the opposing teams, etc.
Now, he has to relearn all of that again in Chicago, and that is no easy task for any caliber of player. Cutler was on his way in Denver to becoming one of the league’s best quarterbacks, but a transition like this can be difficult to handle. The improved offensive line, running game and defense all point to added success for Cutler. However, the lack of a true No. 1 receiver, or any established receiver whatsoever, in Chicago hurts Cutler.
Expect some minor regression in completion percentage, quarterback rating, passing yards and average yards per attempt. A return to 25 touchdowns is possible, but that would likely come with 20 interceptions. Cutler still remains a good fantasy quarterback but the move to Chicago will hurt his value a bit, even if it’s just temporary.
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