Bears Blitz

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Published by OddsShark.com on October 14, 2014
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are still looking for their first home win of the season heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Miami Dolphins. The Bears have played four of their first six games on the road, going 3-1 both straight up and against the spread. But Chicago is 0-2 SU and ATS at home and has covered only one of its past 12 at Soldier Field.

Point spread: Bears opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.8-21.9 Dolphins

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins are visiting a Bears team that is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 home games and seems to play under too much pressure there. Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler has thrown four interceptions in the team’s two home losses, and the Bears are 3-0 this season when he does not throw a pick and 0-3 when he does.

Forcing turnovers will be the key for Miami here, especially after Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers was nearly flawless in a 27-24 road win for the Packers last week.

Chicago’s defense was without some key defensive players last week and did not really get tested, so the Dolphins will need to make sure they take advantage of that weakness in attempting to pull off the upset.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears have played well away from home this season and just need to carry the momentum gained from last week’s 27-13 win at Atlanta over to Soldier Field. Cutler is coming off arguably his best game in a Chicago uniform with 381 passing yards, and his individual performance often determines the results of the team’s games. The bigger surprise in the latest win was the Bears defense holding the Falcons in check on their home field.

Chicago defensive end Jared Allen notched his first sack of the season, while Willie Young added two more to run his league-leading total to seven. If the Bears can continue pressuring opposing quarterbacks, their defense will become a strength.

Smart Pick

Miami has lost its last three games against NFC North opponents both SU and ATS and is also just 3-7 versus the line in its past 10 as a road underdog. Chicago has been an awful home team from a betting perspective, but that simply cannot continue here against the Dolphins.

The Bears know this is an important game despite being out of conference because a road trip to New England to face the Patriots is on deck. They need to prove to themselves that they can win at home before heading east and continuing their run against AFC East opponents.

Both of Chicago’s previous two home losses were close until Cutler literally threw the game away. Watch for Cutler to continue his hot play from the Atlanta game and avoid mistakes as the home team gets the win and cover.

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