Bears Blitz

Published by Bear Heiser on November 14, 2014
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are once again involved in a must-win game. Sunday’s contest with the Minnesota Vikings provides the Bears one last shot to get the season back on track, to make one final run at the postseason.

With seven games remaining, the Marc Trestman-led Bears realistically must win out to even be in the conversation of playoff teams.

Coming off a wretched three-game stretch in which the Bears were outscored 133-51—capped off by a 55-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers—the idea of the Bears winning one game seems like a stretch.

Trestman announced earlier in the week that there wouldn’t be any changes made to the coaching staff, but he did say there could be changes to the depth chart, via ChicagoBears.com:

We’re going to talk, we’re certainly going to talk personnel as I said. The guys are getting in late, they’re still looking at the tape. I haven’t had a chance to even engage them because things have moved so quickly this morning. But we will, we certainly have to. We’re going to look at everything as a starting point moving into Wednesday.

While it’s not directly a game-changing move, the Bears did waive wide receiver Santonio Holmes on Tuesday. At the time, the Holmes move pointed to the return of fellow receiver Marquess Wilson, who has been on injured reserve since fracturing his collarbone in training camp.

Trestman has been coy this week when discussing Wilson’s status for Sunday, saying the second-year receiver is “day-to-day.” But offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer, when talking about Holmes on Thursday, spilled the beans on Wilson, via ChicagoBears.com:

We got out of Santonio Holmes what he wanted to get out of Santonio Holmes. Marquess Wilson is back, and so we needed a roster spot. Santonio Holmes was an upstanding citizen here. He was a joy to be around. He was a model teammate. It’s just that we needed a roster spot for Marquess Wilson, and that was the best person to do it with.

Barring any setbacks, it looks like Chicago’s offense will have the field-stretching wide receiver it’s been waiting for all season.

The addition of Wilson has the potential to open things down the field for quarterback Jay Cutler, who leads an offense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more, per NFL.com.

The Bears’ quarterback has been most efficient this season when his throws stay within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Cutler passes that travel 11 yards or more downfield are being completed at a rate of 44.7 percent.

The Bears’ inability to rack up yards in chunks, as evident by the fact that running back Matt Forte and tight end Martellus Bennett lead the team in receptions, plays right into the hands of a Minnesota defense that has allowed only three plays of 20 yards or more in the past two games—wins over Tampa Bay and Washington. And in those two games, the Vikings defense has two interceptions.

Expect Trestman and Cutler to target Vikings cornerback Captain Munnerlyn, who stands at 5’9” and has given up five touchdowns this season in coverage, which is second-most in the league, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

But before the pass game can get going, Trestman needs to open things up with Forte and the run game. Minnesota is giving up 112.8 rushing yards per game this season, 16th-most in the league.

Washington ran for 122 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota the last time the Vikings took the field. Ninety-four of Washington’s 122 yards came on runs to the right of the center. Forte and the Bears should follow that blueprint and run to the right side, behind Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long.

Running the ball early and often, mixing in some play-action passes and pocket movement from Cutler will keep Minnesota’s first-year head coach Mike Zimmer from getting too aggressive with his pass rush.

Zimmer’s pass rush is one of the league’s best, with 30 sacks this season, third-most in the NFL. The Bears have given up 10 sacks and 29 quarterback hurries on this current three-game losing streak.

Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen enters the game with nine sacks, fifth-most in the league. The end who replaced Jared Allen in Minnesota has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He has sideline-to-sideline speed and can drop back into coverage if needed.

Bears left tackle Jermon Bushrod will have his hands full with Griffen rushing the edge. Bushrod struggled last week against Green Bay, as he was responsible for one sack and two quarterback hurries.

Any verticality Trestman includes in his game plan will hinge on establishing Forte and the line’s ability to protect Cutler. Despite the fact that Wilson has only two career catches, his mere presence on the field is a threat to the defense. But he can’t be effective if Cutler doesn’t have enough time in the pocket.

Dan Durkin of CBS Chicago points out another strength of the Vikings offense: 

Here’s the suggested game plan for Trestman: Run the ball on first down; run the ball on second down; run the ball on third down.

With the hope that you gain at least one first down, the first non-run play needs to be a play-action rollout where Cutler hits Wilson streaking down the field for a long touchdown. Possible? Yes. Realistic? Yeah, maybe.

If Cutler is able to move the offense with consistency without turning the ball over, Mel Tucker’s defense thankfully will remain on the sideline.

The defensive coordinator is lucky he still has a job, given the backlash after the historically bad stretch his defense currently is on, evident by this tweet from Bears sideline reporter Zach Zaidman:

Tucker’s road to redemption starts Sunday against the Vikings, a team led by rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The first-round pick attempted 42 passes in each of his last two starts, throwing for 240-plus yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Eighty-four pass attempts in two games is an awfully large workload for a rookie quarterback, which shows just how much offensive coordinator Norv Turner trusts the kid under center.

ChicagoFootball.com’s Eli Kaberon has a great stat on the Bears’ record against rookie quarterbacks:

Stopping Bridgewater shouldn’t be the sole focus, though. The Vikings have a very capable running back in Jerick McKinnon, a 2014 third-round pick who leads all rookies in rushing yards (446).

McKinnon is a shifty back who runs bigger than he looks. Standing at 5’9”, McKinnon has 251 yards after contact—an average of 2.8 yards per rush—the fifth-best average in the league.

McKinnon’s ability to change speed and direction on a dime could give the Bears defense some trouble, as the unit has struggled defending against motion and misdirection. Shea McClellin’s effort against the Miami Dolphins is a good example, as told by SB Nation’s Windy City Gridiron.

One thing that could, for the most part, solve the Bears’ defensive issues is establishing a pass rush. Jared Allen is the obvious candidate to get the party started, against his old team, too.

Allen has 1.5 sacks this season, struggling to consistently rush the passer. The first-year Bear spoke Wednesday about his season, via ESPN.com’s Ben Goessling:

“I’ve been playing probably some of the best run defense I’ve played in my career this year, but it just needs to translate to getting to the quarterback. We’re 3-6. It’s been up and down. I’ll give myself a 6 [on a scale of 1 to 10].”

Allen needs to be better than a six when he takes the field Sunday. He’ll have a favorable matchup against Vikings left tackle Matt Kalil, who has allowed the most sacks of any left tackle in the league (10).

If the Bears can’t establish a pass rush, Bridgewater will pick apart the Chicago secondary. It doesn’t even matter that he’s a rookie. The Bears’ pass defense simply is that bad, allowing 940 yards and 13 touchdowns in the last three games.

We could sit here all day and break down the Bears defense, but really, there’s no predicting what this defense will do in any given week.

The Bears offense needs points every time Cutler and Co. take the field. Long, clock-draining drives are preferred. That’s the key for the Bears defense.

But before we go, let’s establish something: Barring a win Sunday, this is the last remaining must-win game for the Bears. If the Bears can pull out a victory, then next Sunday’s game against the Lovie Smith-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers also will be a must-win game. Wash, rinse, repeat if the wins keep coming.

The Bears will win Sunday. Not because Trestman was able to turn things around, but more so to torture Bears fans by winning four or five of the remaining seven, raising the hopes of a confused fanbase only to let it down when it’s all said and done.

So, of course, the Bears are going to win Sunday.

Prediction: Bears 27, Vikings 24

All stats provided by Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Game statistics used were pulled from ESPN.com box scores.

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