Bears Blitz

NFL Picks Week 6: Pick 3 Against the Spread

Published by GB Bongiovanni on October 15, 2010
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

Bettors sometimes are willing to try just about anything to figure out how to get that competitive edge against the books. While a number of us will look at stats and betting statistics, there are some that use fantasy football.

For instance ESPN is predicting that Matt Forte has two rushing touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks. If you were to add up all the touchdowns for the Bears and Seahawks you would get the predicted score.

It’s not the wrong thing to do, but don’t use the actual numbers they provide. Odds are Matt Forte does have a good game against the Seahawks but use it as a reference point if anything. Don’t put all your marbles into it.

Last Week: 2-1

Season: 9-6

Game 1: Seahawks at Bears (-6.5)

The Chicago Bears are welcoming back QB Jay Cutler and it’s a good thing after the performance of Todd Collins who went 6-of-16 for 32 yards, and a career worst four interceptions. Despite those horrible numbers the Bears still rolled over the Panthers 23-6 and they also hold the sixth ranked defense in total yards.

The Seattle Seahawks are welcoming in Marshawn Lynch who was acquired from the Buffalo Bills and will be a good addition to this team, but not this week. The Bears have the third ranked run defense allowing only 78.6 yards per game and it’s very likely that the Seahawks will reach even that amount.

As for the betting numbers, they all lead Da Bears way. Seattle is 5-16 against the spread after a bye week since 1992, they are also 0-6 against the spread in road games off a division game over the last three seasons and 1-9 against the spread on the road games over the last two seasons.

Look for Jay Cutler and Matt Forte to have huge days as the Bears roll again 27-10.

Pick: Bears -6.5

Game 2: Browns at Steelers (-13.5)

Ah yes, the largest point spread of the weekend. Don’t be scared, it will all be okay, because rookie Colt McCoy is starting for the Browns. It’s going to be over before it even starts for Colt McCoy as the Steelers top ranked defense look to destroy the former Texas standout.

While the Steelers should destroy McCoy, the real story isn’t the return of Big Ben. It’s the No. 1 ranked run defense of the Steelers going up against the Browns who have had success with Peyton Hillis. The Steelers should have no problem shutting the run and Hillis down while Big Ben gets some rust off that arm.

The Steelers are 48-27 against the spread in Weeks 5-9 since 1992 and are out for revenge against a Cleveland team that beat them at home last December, which all but knocked them out of the playoffs.

Pick: Steelers -13.5

Game 3: Chargers at Rams (-8.5)

So which Chargers team is going to show up this time? The Chargers continue to have mental breakdowns. In three weeks they have allowed two kickoff returns for TD’s, a safety and TD on blocked punts.

Last season San Diego reeled off 11 consecutive victories after dropping three of its first five games and have notoriously suffered from slow starts each year only to end up in the playoffs.

It’s possible the Detroit Lions took out all those years of frustration last weekend on the Rams as they are still trying to figure out what happened after a 44-6 beat down.

San Diego is 22-7 against the spread in dome games since 1992 and they are also 37-18 against the spread in games played on turf since 1992.

The Rams are 108-141 against the spread in all games since 1992 and 52-75 as an underdog.