Bears Blitz

Packers, Bears Both Still Striving for Improvement from 1st Meeting

Published by Zach Kruse on November 5, 2014
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

It’s been six long weeks since the two NFC North rivals first met back in Week 4, but the Green Bay Packers still can’t stop the run and the Chicago Bears still can’t pressure the quarterback.

The Packers delivered two second-half takeaways and won the September meeting by three touchdowns. Yet the high-stakes rematch between the two sides Sunday night at Lambeau Field could very well hinge on which defense better masks its exploitable problem area.

While the Bears rushed for a season-high 235 yards in Week 4, including 122 from running back Matt Forte, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers took just one sack—when he ran out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage—and otherwise wasn’t officially hit against a nonexistent Chicago pass rush.

The Packers can’t feel comfortable about winning another game in which the defense allows 200 or more rushing yards, especially after the New Orleans Saints showed how Green Bay can be soundly beat through a run-based, play-action scheme. And there’s likely no scenario in which the Bears upset the Packers on the road without creating more havoc on Rodgers and the passing game.

Green Bay left New Orleans in Week 8 as the recipient of an offensive clinic.

The Saints rushed 31 times for 193 yards, positioning running back Mark Ingram—who carried 24 times for 171 yards—as the centerpiece of the offense.

New Orleans set the tone right away, giving Ingram three straight carries against the Packers’ underwhelming front seven to open the game. He spent the rest of the contest breaking tackles and controlling the tempo.

Even with Drew Brees at quarterback, the Saints ran to set up the pass. Aided by 13 run plays netting five or more yards, Brees was able to complete eight of his nine passes off play action for 146 yards and three scores. His passer rating off play action was a perfect 158.3.

Green Bay quickly ran out of answers against a team committed to both establishing balance and then using that balance to exploit the coverage downfield.

All three of New Orleans’ game-changing plays—a 45-yard completion to Kenny Stills, a 50-yard touchdown to Brandin Cooks and a 22-yard score to Jimmy Graham—came out of power-run formations that took the Packers out of their nickel defense. The run fakes opened up one-on-one matchups, and Brees took full advantage.

There now appears to be a key mold made for unlocking the Packers defense in 2014.

Back in Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks rushed for 207 yards, while quarterback Russell Wilson completed six of nine passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns off play action. Overall, the Saints and Seahawks combined to rush for 400 yards and throw five touchdowns off run fakes.

As is the case for most, defenses allowing chunk plays out of the run game will eventually have to commit resources up front—leaving more space in the back end.

This table highlights the connection between stopping the run and handling play-action passing:

Expect the Bears to attempt to replicate New Orleans’ plan on offense.

Chicago has proven capable of running the football against the Packers defense. In the first half of the first meeting, the Bears gave Forte a season-high 17 carries. Chicago rushed 23 times for 130 yards, fueling a 17-point half.

In fact, on Chicago’s opening drive, Forte carried on three of the four plays. He gained 16 yards and the race to the end zone was on. A series later, the Bears ran on their first four plays and five of the first six. The drive ended in a field goal. Forte then put Chicago in position to score on the final drive of the half with runs of 13 and five yards to start the possession.

Chicago’s plan to pound Green Bay up front was working. Even on the first drive of the second half, Forte received two carries and rushed for 28 yards before Cutler was intercepted.

He received just four carries the rest of the way as the game spiraled out of control.

Still, over Chicago’s first five possessions, Forte rushed 19 times for 108 yards.

The Bears now need to find a way to get the play-action passing game more involved.

Despite running all over Green Bay, Cutler attempted only three passes off play action. He completed two for 38 yards. Overall, Cutler has a 110.4 passer rating off play action this season, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

However, Chicago ranks in the bottom third of the league in called play-action passes in 2014, with Cutler averaging roughly seven opportunities a game.

Sunday night would be a good time to jumpstart the offense with a healthy dose of Forte and Cutler attacking downfield once the run has been established.

On defense, however, the Bears must find a way to disrupt Rodgers.

Back in September, the Packers’ offensive line nearly pitched a shutout. Rodgers scrambled out of bounds for the lone sack, and only guard T.J. Lang was credited with an allowed disruption, per PFF (subscription required).

The Packers designed a game plan built around getting the ball out of Rodgers’ hand quickly. Rodgers attempted just two passes over 20 yards, choosing instead to go underneath and let his receivers do the work. Overall, the Packers totaled 111 yards after the catch.

The Bears can’t afford another stress-free 60 minutes for Rodgers, but pressuring the quarterback has been a struggle.

During Chicago’s current 1-4 stretch, the Bears have averaged just 12 quarterback disruptions per game. Over those five games, Chicago has just 12 sacks, including four in the lone win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Games against Green Bay and New England featured close to no impact from the pass rush. Chicago allowed 89 total points in those two contests.

The Bears will have to somehow rediscover pressure without the help of defensive end Lamarr Houston, who tore his ACL while celebrating his first sack of the season against the Patriots in Week 8. He leads the defense in disruptions, and his 13 over the last five games represented almost 22 percent of the team’s total.

Taking his place in the starting lineup is Willie Young, who has seven sacks as a situational pass-rusher this season.

Jared Allen (1.5 sacks) still hasn’t gained traction. He has lost a step or two and can’t be counted on for consistent impact.

Defensive tackle Jeremiah Ratliff might represent Chicago’s best opportunity at causing havoc. He missed the first meeting but harassed Miami in Week 7 with 3.5 sacks.

The Packers, meanwhile, could be without both starting guards. Josh Sitton is dealing with a toe injury and Lang has a sprained ankle.

If the Bears’ defensive line can’t create pressure, prepare for another shootout.

Against no pressure this season, Rodgers has completed 72.5 percent of his passes, averaged 8.4 yards per attempt and thrown 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions. His passer rating in zero-pressure situations is 119.2.

Back in Week 4, Rodgers had a passer rating of 141.7 when not under pressure. He’d be expected to post similar numbers if the Bears aren’t better up front against the pass.

Sunday’s matchup may just be decided by the team that best used the off week to repair damages on the defensive side.

If the Packers can force the Bears to be one-dimensional, Green Bay could all but end Chicago’s season. If the Bears can pressure Rodgers and make life uncomfortable for the Packers quarterback, a Chicago upset isn’t out of the cards.

The Packers haven’t proved capable of consistently stopping the run. The Bears haven’t proved capable of consistently rushing the passer.

You can bet Green Bay and Chicago spent a good chunk of the bye devising ways to make the other’s obvious weakness hurt Sunday night.