Bears Blitz

Published by Andrew Dannehy on December 12, 2013
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

When Chicago Bears head coach Marc Trestman announced he was going back to starting quarterback Jay Cutler over backup Josh McCown after practice on Thursday, it defied most statistics and maybe even conventional thinking, but it was absolutely the correct call.

There’s no arguing that McCown did a great job filling in for Cutler, leading the Bears to three wins in his five starts and putting up some impressive statistics. Those statistics have led many to believe he’s the right answer, but when put in context that still isn’t so.

McCown has thrown 13 touchdowns to just one interception with a passer rating of 109.8, the third best in the league. Cutler also had 13 touchdowns, but eight interceptions as his passer rating of 88.4 is the 12th highest in the league. 

It’s about more than individual statistics, however. There is a lot of context that needs to be applied.

A popular topic this week—mostly because it now favors McCown—is the Bears’ points per possession with each quarterback.

If you went just off of McCown‘s passer rating—as many think Trestman should do—you’d be picking him over Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. The simple fact is that McCown‘s performance hasn’t matched his statistics.

It became a popular topic because the Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs brought it up, but he used faulty logic and questionable numbers.

The first issue with the numbers—as you see in a tweet he sent to me—is that he counted the drive Cutler was injured against the Redskins against him, and not McCown. Cutler only played one snap on that play, McCown played two, why should Cutler get the blame for the Bears not scoring there?

The next issue is that he subtracted the opponent’s scores. Cutler threw an interception returned for a touchdown, but it came after Alshon Jeffery dropped the pass. Why should Cutler get the blame for that?

Of course Biggs also ignores the drives that the Bears weren’t trying or had no chance to score. Although he subtracted kneel downs, Cutler led two drives in which the Bears just ran the clock out without taking a knee. He also had two drives when the Bears took over deep in their own territory with very little time left. 

There were also numerous drives against Pittsburgh when the Bears were ahead by double digits and Trestman took his foot off the gas. McCown was in the same position against Dallas, but teams can score on Dallas even when they’re not necessarily trying, while the Pittsburgh defense is a lot better.

What about the two drives Cutler had ended because Jeffery couldn’t secure catches and they were intercepted? Or the two times he had balls tipped and they were intercepted. It isn’t like Cutler has a lot of passes tipped, he’s had five this season, just one more than McCown. Cutler’s have just had a more unlucky ending.

Biggs also counted the second half of the Detroit game against Cutler when he was playing with a severely sprained ankle. Maybe that’s fair since he was on the field, but shouldn’t a healthy quarterback’s performance be compared with another healthy quarterback’s?

If one is going to use points per possession, why not points per play? I used the play count from Pro Football Focus (subscription required), subtracted kneel downs and spikes.

Prior to the Dallas game, that favored Cutler as the Bears averaged .365 points per play, to McCown‘s .334. After the game against the Cowboys‘ historically bad defense, the Bears jumped up to .385, which is just about a point per game more than Cutler, based on the average number of plays the Bears run. If you use Cutler’s points per play prior to his injury in the Washington game, it’s almost equal as Cutler exited the game averaging .383 points per play.

There’s much more context that needs to be added.

The competition each team went against needs to be added. McCown just went against one of the worst defenses in NFL history, a week after going against another team that surrenders 30 points per game. Three of his five starts have been against teams that have given up over 25 points per game, Cutler played just two such teams, one in terrible weather.

McCown played against just one defense that ranked in the top half in yardage, Cutler played against four. 

Not only has the opposition been significantly worse, but McCown has gotten much more help from his own teammates.

That is something Trestman noted right after the Bears dismantled the Cowboys.

“I thought there were a lot of exceptional catches in the game,” Trestman said in his post game press conference. “I think it all starts with our offensive line, they kept him clean. I thought our protection was very good tonight.”

In the six games McCown has seen his most significant action, the Bears have averaged 129.8 rushing yards per game. They’ve run for over 130 yards four times. In Cutler’s seven games, the Bears averaged just 98.3 rushing yards per game, topping 130 just once. 

McCown has also been getting more help after the catch as 820 of his passing yards have come via yards after the catch. The Bears have just 621 YAC with Cutler, an average of just 3.8 per completion, while their average with McCown is 5.6.

The prime reason for that is the play calling. With a weaker-armed quarterback, the Bears have called more short passes.

The Bears have thrown passes behind the line of scrimmage 16.3 percent of the time with McCown and that has resulted in 15.4 percent of his yardage. They threw such passes just nine percent of the time with Cutler and it has accounted for just 6.4 percent of his yards.

Of course, the biggest issue Cutler has had in his time with the Bears has been protection. There too, McCown has been getting better play.

Cutler has been pressured on 40.9 percent of his drop backs this season, compared to 37.2 percent for McCown. The conventional thought is that Cutler holds onto the ball longer to throw further down the field, but that isn’t true.

Cutler has passed in 2.5 seconds or less 46.8 percent of the time, while McCown has done so on 41.8 percent of his passes. The average time it has taken Cutler to release the ball has been 2.59 seconds, while McCown has been 2.67.

Despite throwing many more screen and swing passes, McCown has had the ball in his hands more and been pressured significantly less.

It’s also worth noting that Cutler has evaded pressure much better, as both players have been sacked 11 times.

The improved play of the offensive line and receivers also has as much to do with experience as anything else. Remember, the Bears started this season with four new offensive linemen—two of which were rookies—with a new blocking scheme and completely new playbook.

In addition to that, Jeffery only played 10 games his rookie season and left two of those early due to injuries.

The most important issue in this is performance. There are a number of things that don’t show up in the statistics that need to be considered.

McCown‘s statistics look so good mostly because he hasn’t thrown a lot of interceptions. It isn’t as if he hasn’t made bad throws, however.

He put three passes in the hands of Cowboys defenders and two in the hands of Vikings defenders. Two of those passes were intercepted, but called back because of penalty, the others just weren’t caught. It has to be mentioned that on one of those called back, the penalty is likely what caused the interception.

In the one against the Vikings, however, the penalty had nothing to do with the play. It was an offsides call against the Vikings. The common thought was that McCown was throwing down the field because he knew he had a free play. If that were the case, why didn’t he throw down the sideline to Brandon Marshall in man coverage?

As you see in the screen shot below, he had better options. Still, a good throw would’ve been a big gain. 

There were three more passes that easily could’ve been intercepted against the Cowboys and Vikings, but the defenders didn’t play the ball as they probably should have.

McCown also had an interception dropped against the Packers and one called back due to a penalty that had nothing to do with the play against the Rams.

Every defense drops interceptions and every quarterback gets those breaks, but that is an incredibly high rate. In 2012 considering Cutler had just six such passes, according to Football Outsiders.

History suggests McCown‘s luck in this regard will run out. He came into this season with a career interception rate of 3.9, throwing 44 in 52 games. He also fumbled 41 times.

The argument that Trestman fixed McCown‘s bad habits would be viable, if not for all the times he has thrown the ball to the other team.

None of this is to take anything away from McCown. He has been great in relief of Cutler, but Cutler is the better player. One can argue that McCown is playing better until they’re blue in the face, but hot streaks always come to an end. 

Another thing to consider is that if Cutler were to struggle, the Bears could always go back to McCown. He show he’s capable of coming off the bench in a pinch, something that Cutler may not be able to do if the roles were reversed.

When push comes to shove, a team should go with their best players. That is exactly what Trestman is doing. Even if the statistics don’t necessarily support it, the logic is sound.

All stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required) unless otherwise indicated.

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